2030 BAU Coefficients for CoM South Countries

In the framework of the Covenant of Mayors South project (CoM South), the EU-JRC provides scientific and technical assistance to the eight countries signing the regional Covenant of Mayors Mediterranean or CoM-Med: Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Palestine and Tunisia. In compliance with the Paris Agreement commitments, the countries in Clima-Med have prepared their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and a growing number of South Mediterranean cities have already committed to take climate action initiatives through the development of local climate actions setting targets of at least the applicable NDC. Since 2012 the JRC has been supporting the implementation of the local climate plans in the MENA region and the present report aims to help the municipalities in setting their GHG emissions targets for 2030. Cities are requested to set their targets against a projected “business as usual” (BAU) trajectory, a reference case that represents future conditions most likely to occur in the absence of measures to control the GHG emissions. In this context, JRC has developed a methodology to estimate the GHG emissions in 2030 based on the national BAU projection reported in the NDCs. In practice, a set of national BAU coefficients (KNDC-BAU) has been calculated to enable the cities calculating the maximum GHG emissions allowed in the target year (2030). The methodology NDC-based does not apply to Algeria and Egypt and for those last countries it was used the 2020 GECO reference scenario.