A Forward Future-Based Approach to Optimizing Agriculture and Climate Change Adaptation in Lower Eastern Kenya

Kenya’s vulnerability to climate variability and change has been compounded by dependence on rain-fed agriculture with constrained capacity to adapt, a rapidly growing population, low-mechanized and low-input smallholder agricultural systems, and compromised soil fertility. The Ukraine war, COVID-19 and the desert locust invasion have only amplified the prevailing sensitivity to shocks in the agriculture sector, creating an emphasis on the need to strengthen local agricultural production to reduce reliance on imports. This paper seeks to assess the opportunities for improving agriculture adaptation and resilience based on future expected changes in climate, length of the growing period and agro-ecologies. The study uses 2020 as the baseline year and explores changes in agro-ecological zones (AEZs) in “near future” 2040 through two representative concentration pathways, 4.5 and 8.5, representing a medium carbon emissions and a dire emissions future, respectively. Google Earth Engine and R Statistics are used in data-processing. Down-scaled climate projections from CIMP5 are used for future analyses combined with static soil suitability and drainage data. Fuzzy logic is used to normalize inputs and compute the agro-ecological zones (AEZ). Interesting results emerge from the study that validate the hypothesis that the seasons and production potential are shifting. Lowland drylands will experience an increasingly long growing period, creating the potential for diversifying production systems from rangelands to agro-pastoral systems, with the capacity to grow more drought-resistant crops and the potential to take advantage of increased runoff for water harvesting. Midland highland areas, which form part of the food basket areas, have already started experiencing a reduction in the length of the growing period and agricultural potential. In these areas, resilience mechanisms will need to consider the expected future reduction in rain-fed agricultural potential, gendered preferences, convergence of technology and indigenous coping mechanisms, and drought-resilience-focused diversification.