A model assessing potential benefits of isolation and mass testing on COVID-19: the case of Nigeria
Domain:
healthcareRecord type:
paper
Creator:
FarChiZviSun
Publisher:
ope
Host:
Abstract
We consider a model with mass testing and isolation mimicking the current policies implemented in Nigeria and use the Nigerian daily cumulative cases to calibrate the model to obtain the optimal mass testing and isolation levels. Mathematical analysis was done and important thresholds such the peak size relation and final size relation were obtained. Global stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium indicated that COVID-19 can be eradicated provided that
and unstable otherwise. Results from simulations revealed that an increase in mass testing and reduction of transmission from isolated individuals are associated with benefits of increasing detected cases, lowering peaks of symptomatic cases, increase in self-isolating cases, decrease in cumulative deaths and decrease in admissions into monitored isolation facilities in the case of Nigeria.
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