A Proposed Data-Driven Model for Equitable Social Health Authority (SHA) Contribution Assessment in Kenya Using Authorized M-Pesa and Bank Transaction Data

Abstract
Kenya's transition to the Social Health Authority (SHA) represents an important development in the financing and delivery of universal health coverage. A continuing research challenge is how to assess the financial capacity of individuals and households, particularly those whose income is irregular or not derived from formal salaried employment.
This research proposes a data-driven contribution-assessment model that could complement existing means-testing approaches by using authorized twelve-month M-Pesa transaction information and, where M-Pesa data is unavailable, incomplete or insufficient, authorized bank-account transaction information.
The proposal does not claim that SHA currently uses M-Pesa or bank transactions to calculate contributions. Instead, it investigates whether aggregated and appropriately classified financial patterns could improve assessment of contribution capacity. The model would distinguish income from loans, transfers, savings withdrawals, refunds and internal transfers and combine financial indicators with relevant socioeconomic information.
The study also addresses privacy, cybersecurity, fairness, transparency, human review and appeals. Empirical validation would be required before operational adoption.