Accountable Predictive Policing of Cybercrime? Insights from Nigerian Law Enforcement

The unconventional challenges in cybercrime investigation and mitigation brought about by the sophistication of Artificial Intelligence (AI) significantly impact the fight against cybercrime. Cybercriminals employ AI and machine learning to bypass cybersecurity defences and expand cyber threats. There is an active and ongoing debate on how AI can enable defenders to detect, predict and effectively respond to cyber threats using AI technologies such as predictive policing tools. However, the effectiveness of predictive policing has not been widely accepted in scientific and contemporary literature due to human rights, legal and ethical concerns that inhibit its employment in cybercrime mitigation. There is a remarkable magnitude of cybercrime in Nigeria, perpetrated by Nigerians globally, compared to other countries. Nigeria ranks 5th globally as a source of cybercrime and cybercriminal activity, according to the world's first Cybercrime Index. Nigeria also ranked 13th as the most vulnerable country to cyberattacks on the Global Threat Index. Nigerian law enforcement agencies are ill-equipped to confront the technological advancements in cybercrime. This study, based on qualitative and desk research, explores the necessary adaptation of existing predictive policing techniques to the Nigerian cybercrime situation, taking into account the problematisation of what predictive policing represents today. It conducts a criminological analysis of the law enforcement response to cybercrime in Nigeria, highlighting the role of digitalisation in cybercrime prevention in the country. Additionally, it examines the legal status of predictive policing technologies in Nigeria, including their compliance and risk management considerations. Based on insights from Nigerian law enforcement, this study found that predictive policing is not a preventive measure for combating cybercrime in Nigeria due to legal, ethical, and human rights concerns inherent in such AI-driven tools across all domains of their usage. Findings reveal that the legal status of predictive policing systems in Nigeria remains ambiguous, as there is no dedicated AI governance and regulatory framework governing their legal position and use. Additionally, formal measurement or oversight of compliance and risk management regarding predictive policing deployment in Nigerian law enforcement is limited and largely ad hoc due to the absence of specific AI regulation in Nigeria.