AEMS–One Health Indicator Matrix Technical Framework v1.0: Integrating Environmental Intelligence, Epidemiological Surveillance and Bayesian Risk Modeling for Sudan Ebolavirus Early Warning Systems

This technical framework integrates environmental intelligence, wildlife surveillance, livestock monitoring, ecological disturbance assessment, and Bayesian uncertainty modeling into a unified analytical structure for Sudan ebolavirus (SUDV) early warning. The framework assumes that spillover events emerge from the interaction of five major domains:1. Environmental Disturbance (flood persistence, soil moisture, vegetation stress, forest fragmentation)2. Bat-Human Interface (forest edge proximity, orchard density, habitat degradation, foraging shifts)3. Livestock Amplification Pathways (pig density, backyard systems, movement connectivity)4. Wildlife Sentinel Signals (primate/duiker/bat mortality events)5. Human Exposure Conditions (population density, settlement expansion, healthcare accessibility) Each domain is represented by measurable indicators integrated into the AEMS probabilistic architecture, producing:• Environmental Disturbance Score (EDS)• Bat-Human Contact Probability Index (BHPI)• Pig Amplification Risk Index (PARI)• Wildlife Early Warning Index (WEWI)• Human Exposure Vulnerability Index (HEVI) The target pilot region comprises Mubende and Kassanda districts in Uganda, areas historically associated with SUDV transmission and characterized by fragmented surveillance systems and complex wildlife-livestock-human interactions.