Algorithmic Modeling and Simulation of Non-Carcinogenic Health Risk from Black Soot Exposure among Population Groups in Warri Metropolis, Nigeria

The study employed algorithmic modeling and simulation to assess the non-carcinogenic health risks among children, as well as adult males and females due to black soot pollution in Warri metropolis. The study was motivated by difficulties in estimating personal pollutant intake and associated health hazards, as well as limitations arising from heterogeneous study designs. These challenges were addressed by linking individual daily pollutant intake to health-risk profiles using an algorithmic approach. Human health risk assessment matrices for pollutant inhalation were adopted to develop four algorithms for the target population groups. The algorithms were simulated using average black soot concentration and human exposure-duration data obtained during the rainy and dry seasons. Dust-fall measurement techniques were used during the wet season, while a high-volume (HV) sampler was used during the dry season. The non-carcinogenic risk was evaluated based on the hazard quotient/risk-index criterion, where values greater than unity indicate potential non-carcinogenic health risk. The reported percentages represent the relative contributions of each population group to the overall modeled risk and are not hazard quotient values expressed as percentages. The simulated results showed that children below 1 year had the highest relative risk contribution (47.6%), followed by children aged 1–12 years (20.6%) and adult males (19.4%), while adult females had the lowest contribution (12.4%). The findings indicate that children, particularly infants, are more vulnerable to potential non-carcinogenic health effects associated with black soot exposure, whereas adult females had the lowest modeled risk contribution.