An analytical framework to assess green transition jobs in South Africa

Climate change and the resultant catastrophic weather events across the globe underpin the need for a shift away from carbon-intensive modes of production. In South Africa, where electricity generation is heavily reliant on coal, this imperative is recognised, and various policies aim to support the implementation of a Just Energy Transition. The transition to a greener economy can have various impacts on the labour force, with a significant concern being an increase in unemployment. In this paper, a Green Transition Framework is proposed for profiling workers who are likely to be impacted by the energy transition, based on what work they do and in which industry they work. By combining a bottom-up approach that identifies green transition related occupations, with a top-down approach that identifies ‘brown’ industries, a matrix is developed that allows us to examine where on the nexus between ‘green transition occupations’, and brown industries, workers find themselves. Using South African labour force data, these dimensions are plotted to provide a picture of the type of worker who may be at risk of, or alternatively, may be better placed to withstand the potential effects of the green transition. This can ultimately assist in developing effective policies and interventions to mitigate the risks of the green transition. Key features of the Framework are its flexibility with respect to the definition of ‘green’ occupations and ‘brown’ industries; the integration of bottom-up and top-down methodologies; as well as the data utilised. Such a Framework can be broadly applied in global contexts other than South Africa.

The Green Transition Framework integrates industry and occupation information, both of which need to be considered in the creation of targeted policies and intervention strategies concerning the green transition and the labour market.

The bottom-up and top-down approaches that are introduced allow for nuanced analysis of green jobs in South Africa, which is essential for evidence-based policy.

The Framework can be tailored to specific research contexts, and is flexible in the methodologies for estimating green employment and brown industries, making it a globally applicable analytical tool.

Two preliminary applications of the framework suggest that workers in polluting industries may have transferable skills for the green economy and that men may find it easier to transition to green jobs. Such findings can assist in more nuanced policy development.