An Explainable Decision-Support Framework for Equitable and Sustainable Urban Property Taxation in Ethiopia: Comparative Benchmarking and a Phase 2 Validation Protocol

This Phase 1 working paper develops an explainable, GIS-enabled decision-support framework for equitable and sustainable urban property taxation in Ethiopia. It comparatively benchmarks Addis Ababa against Kigali, Nairobi, Cape Town, and Berlin, while accounting for differences in valuation bases, assessment ratios, statutory rates, property categories, exemptions, deductions, and relief mechanisms. The proposed architecture integrates parcel-data governance, hybrid computer-assisted mass appraisal, spatial validation, explainable artificial intelligence, prediction uncertainty, ratio studies, policy optimization, taxpayer services, municipal monitoring, and appeals and audit processes. Comparative benchmarking identifies 0.15% of full market value as a candidate pilot rate for owner-occupied primary residences. Additional illustrative rates are proposed for rental residential, commercial, productive industrial, and serviced vacant or underused properties. These rates are presented as testable policy hypotheses and not as empirically validated national optima. Phase 2 will evaluate and recalibrate the framework using Ethiopian property-level and market data, household-affordability evidence, municipal-finance and collection data, stakeholder-derived decision weights, uncertainty analysis, and task-based evaluation of the decision-support system. Working-paper notice: This manuscript has not undergone peer review. The proposed property-tax rates are intended for comparative policy analysis, simulation, and pilot testing. They should not be interpreted as adopted government rates or final national recommendations. Version: 1.0 DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21544206