ARIMA modelling and forecasting of malaria confirmed cases in Ondo State

Background: Malaria is a leading cause of death especially in children under the age of 5 and still remains public health concern for Nigeria and has unique variability in specific locations, thus the need to understand the peculiarity of malaria incidence for Ondo State. Objectives: The study seeks to understand the hidden patterns of malaria incidence in Ondo State, by applying ARIMA Model analysis to forecast malaria cases in Ondo State based on the available data for early warnings to the stakeholders in the health sector. Methods: The data from January 2015 to December 2024 was obtained from National Malaria Elimination Programme (NMEP). The data was analysed using the ARIMA Model, selected based on a 70:30% data split ratio, with model evaluated using metrics which are  root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used to forecast malaria cases in the State for two years. Results: The results showed that malaria confirmed trend in the State had a sharp steady increase in malaria cases from 2016 and the highest peak reached in 2017 but it regulates down by early 2018, although a regular seasonal pattern was sustained annually. Peak seasons occur between May-June annually and forecasted malaria cases in Ondo State could go as high 9327 averagely in the next two years. Conclusion: The findings indicate that relevant stakeholders should increase preparedness in intervention deployment against the peak seasons (May-June), to avoid resurgence of high malaria incidence in Ondo State as experienced in 2016-2017