Assessing Climate Change-Induced Temperature and Precipitation Variability: Trends, Drivers, and Environmental Implications in Gondar City, Ethiopia

This study examined temperature and precipitation variability, their associated atmospheric controls, and the relationship between urban land-use change and climatic conditions in Gondar City, northwestern Ethiopia, over the period 1990-2020. Secondary climatic and spatial data were obtained from the KNMI Climate Explorer, NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA POWER), and United States Geological Survey (USGS), with data acquired through webbased browsing. Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were employed to process spatial datasets, assess land-use/land-cover change, and examine the spatial distribution of climatic variables. Trend analysis, Pearson correlation coefficient, coefficient of determination (R²), and multiple linear regression were used to quantify temporal changes and relationships among temperature, precipitation, and selected atmospheric and environmental variables. The findings indicate a significant increasing trend in minimum and maximum temperatures during the study period, confirming a persistent warming tendency in Gondar. Precipitation exhibited substantial temporal variability and an overall increasing tendency, although the magnitude and statistical significance of the trend differed among the investigated stations. Atmospheric pressure emerged as an important statistical predictor of precipitation. The analysis further indicated a stronger statistical association between methane (CH₄) and temperature change than between temperature and other atmospheric gases examined, including CO₂, CFCs, NOₓ, and particulates. Urban landuse transformation, particularly the expansion of built-up surfaces, provides an additional pathway for modifying surface energy balance and intensifying urban warming. The study concludes that Gondar is experiencing concurrent warming and variable precipitation, highlighting the importance of integrated urban land-use, atmospheric, and climate-management strategies.