Assessing Ecosystem Service Supply-Demand Mismatches in Urban GreenInfrastructure: Evidence from Zanzibar’s Urban-West Region

This study investigates the balance between ecosystem service supply and societal demand across multiple components of urban green infrastructure (UGI) in the Urban-West Region of Zanzibar, Tanzania. The research focuses on key land-use types, including forests, allotment gardens, sports areas, agricultural land, riparian vegetation, degraded areas, and green spaces within settlements. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining household surveys, key informant interviews, and field observations with spatial analysis of land-use data. Ecosystem services were classified into provisioning, regulating, and cultural categories following established frameworks, and assessed using a set of standardized indicators. Both supply and demand were quantified and normalized on a 0–1 scale, enabling comparative analysis across ecosystem service types and UGI categories. Descriptive statistics and supply-demand differentials were used to identify deficits and surpluses, while graphical techniques supported the interpretation of multidimensional patterns. The results indicate a widespread imbalance where ecosystem service demand exceeds supply across most urban green infrastructure types, with deficits ranging from about 19% in sports areas to over 45% in agricultural land. Regulating services show the greatest shortfalls, while provisioning services are mixed, and cultural services perform relatively better but still do not fully meet demand. These patterns, consistent with global trends, are intensified in Zanzibar by local pressures such as rapid urbanization and limited planning integration. The findings emphasize the need for improved management, spatial planning, and ecological restoration to enhance ecosystem service provision and urban sustainability..