Assessing Lightning Risk in Africa: A Framework Integrating Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability via the African Lightning Incident Database

Abstract Lightning is a significant yet underreported hazard across Africa, with casualty rates far exceeding those in developed nations. This study analyzes 1,290 lightning incident reports from the African Lightning Incident Database (ALID), covering 44 countries between 2018 and 2023, documenting 3,047 fatalities and 3,703 injuries. We characterize African lightning risk through the Hazard-Exposure-Vulnerability framework. Seasonal casualty patterns closely follow hemispheric thunderstorm activity (hazard). National casualty rates in several central and southern African countries exceed 20 per million annually, which is roughly 20 times higher than developed nations. Only 13% of African incidents involve single victims compared to 90%+ in the U.S. and U.K., with an average of 5.3 casualties per event reflecting concentrated exposure in group settings. Nearly half (49.6%) of casualties occur indoors in buildings lacking lightning protection, and children account for 57.4% of known casualties, often at unprotected schools (vulnerability). Risk assessment for 15 countries identifies five Very High Risk countries (DRC, Rwanda, Uganda, Malawi, Guinea) where hazard, exposure, and vulnerability interact to produce extreme casualty risk. Despite reporting limitations, ALID provides foundational evidence for risk characterization and supports targeted interventions including improved building standards for schools and public spaces, region-specific safety education, and expanded early-warning systems to reduce Africa’s disproportionate lightning impacts.