ASSESSING THE DYNAMICS OF ENERGY ACCESS AND KEY ECONOMIC VARIABLES: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS: 1990–2023

Abstract This study investigates the dynamic relationship between energy access and key macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria from 1990 to 2023 using time series data and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Unlike most studies that assess how energy access drives economic growth, this research reverses the direction of analysis by examining how Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Human Development Index (HDI), Manufacturing Output, and Population influence access to electricity. The results reveal that previous levels of energy access significantly determine current access, indicating persistence over time. GDP has an initial negative effect but turns positive after one year, implying that economic growth takes time to improve energy availability. Manufacturing Output shows a short-term positive but lagged negative effect, while Population exerts a delayed positive influence. The error correction term confirms rapid adjustment toward long-term equilibrium. In the long run, GDP negatively affects energy access, suggesting growth alone does not ensure equitable energy distribution, whereas Manufacturing Output and Population have positive and significant impacts. HDI shows a positive but insignificant effect. Diagnostic tests confirm the model’s reliability and stability. The study recommends integrated policies linking economic growth, industrial expansion, and infrastructure investment to promote inclusive and sustainable energy access in Nigeria.