Assessing the Impact of Climate Variability on Maize Production in Rwanda: A case of Gakenke District

Abstract— The changes in climatic variables is a challenge for the humanity as they affect different ecosystems important for life. This study assessed the impact of climate variability on maize production from 2012 to 2021. Specifically, this study 1) assessed the pattern of precipitation and temperature variability, 2) analysed the production of maize, and 3) investigated the relation between climate variability and maize production in Gakenke district. This study was conducted in three sectors, with a sample of 322 maize farmers. Climatic data were obtained from the Rwanda Meteorological Agency. Both descriptive statistic and regression and correlation analysis were performed in RStudio. The results show a remarkable variability in the annual mean temperature and annual rainfall. The mean temperature and amount of rain have increased by +1.34oC and 1.74 mm in Cyabingo, by +1.47oC and 1.997 mm in Gakenke, and by +1.52oC and 3.389 mm in Gashenyi. An overall increase in maize yields was highlighted and much dependent on temperature variation than precipitation variability. A strong correlation was between the temperature and yields, with r values of 0.98 for Cyabingo, 0.90 for Gakenke, and 0.94 for Gashenyi. The regression analysis indicates that maize yields were significantly influenced by temperature variability, with R-squared values of 0.960 (p-value = 0.000), 0.815 (p-value = 0.000), and 0.885 (p-value = 0.000) respectively in Cyabingo, Gakenke, and Gashenyi. On the other side, a mild positive correlation (r = 0. 43), a moderate negative correlation (r = -0.59), and a weak negative correlation (r = -0.1) were between precipitation and maize yields in Cyabingo, Gakenke, and Gashenyi, respectively. The regression analysis also indicates that maize yield of was not significantly influenced by precipitation variability. Although this study shows the temperature as an important factor for maize production, its continuing rise could bring to heavy rains and unexpected strong weather events, with ultimate negative impacts. Thus, adaptation strategies on climatic variability should be enhanced in order to minimize its disastrous effects on maize production.