Assessing the Impact of Supply-Side Consolidation on Structural Constraints and Upgrading Trajectories in the Egyptian Apparel Industry: A Quantitative Analysis within the Global Value Chain Framework (2004–2022)

This dissertation examines the structural constraints and upgrading trajectories of Egypt’s apparel industry within the Global Value Chain (GVC) framework over the period 2004–2022. Despite Egypt’s locational advantages and long-established cotton reputation, apparel exports stagnated between 2009 and 2020, reaching only USD 1.46 billion in 2020 against the USD 7.76 billion target set in the Egyptian Textile Vision strategy. Drawing on secondary trade data from WTO Stats, UN Comtrade, ITC Trade Map, and the World Bank, together with the GOEIC exporter registry, and analyzing them quantitatively in Microsoft Power BI, the study demonstrates that the post-MFA phase-out and post-2008 consolidation of global apparel supply—in which the top twenty exporting countries came to command approximately 84% of world trade—imposed a structural ceiling on mid-tier exporters that no domestic policy target could realistically overcome. The analysis identifies a competitiveness–performance paradox: favorable indicators (RCA above 1 since 2008, a 13.92% CAGR) coexisted with weak export outcomes, explained by limited production capacity, high exporter turnover (only about 10% of registered firms exported consistently from 2015 to 2022), and weak backward linkages. The dissertation’s principal conceptual contribution reframes Egypt’s large domestic market (approximately USD 8.3 billion) as a strategic incubator for capability development rather than a fallback, and proposes differentiated upgrading pathways by export frequency and firm size, from Cut-Make-Trim toward OEM and functional upgrading. The findings offer an evidence-based foundation for recalibrating export targets and industrial policy for Egypt and comparable mid-tier apparel exporters. The work was submitted in April 2025 in partial fulfillment of the PhD in Business Administration at the Swiss School of Management under the supervision of Prof. Hamdy Elwany.