<b>Debt Servicing, Exchange Rate Depreciation, and Inflation in Ghana: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing and NARDL Asymmetric Analysis (1993–2024)</b>

This study empirically investigates the effects of public debt servicing (PDS), short-term public debt (SPD), and exchange rate depreciation on inflation in Ghana over the period 1993 to 2024 (N = 32 annual observations). Using Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Zivot-Andrews structural break unit root tests, the series exhibit a mixed integration order of I(0) and I(1), confirming the appropriateness of the ARDL bounds testing framework. The ARDL bounds F-statistics fall within the inconclusive range for the PDS model and below the lower bound for the SPD model, suggesting that long-run cointegration is not robustly established at conventional significance levels — a finding that reflects both the limited sample size and the structural breaks associated with Ghana's cedi redenomination in 2007 and the debt crisis of 2022–2023. Despite this, the error correction term in the PDS model (ECT = −0.935, p < 0.001) indicates significant mean reversion.