Breaking Boundaries: Multidirectional Responses of Malagasy Bats to Unmitigated Future Climate Change

ABSTRACT Aim Climate change has become one of the main drivers of species extinctions in the Anthropocene and its impact is only expected to increase. This presents an immediate problem for the conservation of Malagasy endemics, as the island is expected to be particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change, the degree of which is expected to vary across Madagascar. Our current data deficiency hinders accurate assessments of species' vulnerability, particularly in Chiroptera, which are considered climate‐sensitive due to their large surface area to volume ratio and high metabolic rates. Therefore, forecasting how climate change will affect their distributions is a key stepping stone towards effective conservation management. Location Madagascar. Methods Using an ensemble modelling approach, we projected the current geographic ranges of 32 endemic species of Malagasy bat, and we assessed how their distributions are forecast to change under a ‘business as usual’ representative climate pathway (RCP 8.5). Results While species are normally expected to move to latitudes away from the equator as the climate warms, this study demonstrates far more nuance in the relationship between individual species and their environment. Malagasy bat populations are expected to undergo substantial changes in their future distribution, with one species showing range contractions greater than 50%, two doubling their range, and nearly half significantly shifting their ranges either latitudinally or longitudinally. Main Conclusions These results highlight the complex interplay between biodiversity and climate and add to the body of evidence for multidirectional range shifts. With the limited conservation resources available it is thus paramount to ensure that conservation interventions are well‐researched and species‐specific, to target vulnerable populations and maximise benefits.