Bridging the Affordability Gap: Integrating Community-embedded Local Solar Technicians into Nigeria's Rural Electrification Programmes

In a market shaped by Nigeria's dynamic income conditions, community-embedded local solar technicians operating in remote communities where difficult terrain limits the reach of external commercial entities possess a structural advantage. Unlike standardised large providers, they can adapt business models in real time as household conditions change.  Yet Nigeria's rural electrification programmes, operated by the Rural Electrification Agency (REA) in conjunction with multilateral development banks, have not recognised or supported this advantage. Significant investment has been channelled into extending electricity through Solar Home Systems (SHS) via standardised large provider offerings, while community-embedded local solar technicians who deliver flexible, custom SHS options directly to households remain structurally excluded from programme support. Empirical evidence from three neighbouring communities on Onisiwo Island, Lagos, shows that local technicians already adapt SHS hardware across a range of capacities and services to fit households' evolving affordability preferences, suggesting the necessity of supporting community-embedded local technicians to sustain and expand SHS adoption. A simulation model reflecting SHS expansion in study communities confirms that adoption momentum is conditional: prices at or below the typical household income threshold sustain uptake; prices above it produce a sharp collapse.