Classification framework for outbreak modelling and policy.

Five categories of modelling-policy systems were identified and organised by similar experiences and recommendations on the use of outbreak modelling in policy. Type of modelling infrastructure and level of government interaction with modelling were identified as important contextual drivers when grouping country settings. The five categories of modelling-policy systems identified are: (A) Countries with small modelling capacity and likely high government linkage, such as Hong Kong; (B) Countries with large modelling capacity and high or very high government linkage, such as Kenya; (C) Countries where modelling teams worked in isolation, combined by non-modellers in government, such as South Korea; (D) Countries with a large modelling capacity with a primary government modelling team, such as Canada; (E) Countries with one government modelling team, such as Peru. Countries were placed in the same category if interviewees demonstrated similar beliefs and experiences on the use of outbreak modelling in policy. Note: For other pathogens and other health crises, each category may contain different countries.