Climate Change Sub-Saharan Africa

Climate-induced extreme weather events threaten global tourism. This study estimates the short-run and long-run effects of drought, wildfire, and flood shocks on international tourism revenue in 18 African countries over 2003-2024. Using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator, the findings showed that droughts and wildfires significantly reduce long-term revenue by 5.1% and 2.7% per event year, respectively, while floods showed no robust impact. The error-correction term of -0.565 implies that over half of any deviation from equilibrium is corrected within a single year. A threshold analysis reveals that the nine most tourism-dependent economies (e.g., Madagascar, Rwanda, Ethiopia, etc.) fully offset the negative effects of drought through infrastructure investment, while the nine less-dependent economies (e.g., Morocco, Egypt, Nigeria, etc.) face unmitigated losses. These findings support country-differentiated rather than continent-wide adaptation policies. By focusing on revenue rather than arrivals, this study provides empirical evidence on adjustment speeds and actionable thresholds for climate-resilient tourism strategies in Africa.