Climate Change, Urbanisation, and Sustainability Outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract This study examines the effects of climate change and urbanisation on sustainability outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa using panel data for 32 countries over the period 1996–2023. The analysis focuses on economic, environmental, and social sustainability while incorporating temperature, precipitation, carbon emissions, and persistent drought conditions measured by the Palmer Drought Severity Index. To capture long-run relationships, nonlinear responses, distributional dynamics, and heterogeneity across countries, sectors, and subregions, the study employs Pooled Mean Group estimation, Common Correlated Effects estimators, Hansen threshold regression, and panel quantile regression techniques. The findings show that rising temperatures weaken economic, environmental, and social sustainability, while precipitation generally improves sustainability outcomes, particularly economic sustainability. Carbon emissions support economic sustainability in some economies but reduce environmental sustainability, revealing a trade-off between economic expansion and environmental protection. The threshold estimates indicate that the effects of climate change and urbanisation become increasingly adverse once critical climatic and urbanisation levels are exceeded. The results further reveal substantial heterogeneity across subregions and sectors, with West and East Africa displaying greater climate vulnerability, and agriculture emerging as the most climate-sensitive sector. Persistent drought conditions exert particularly strong negative effects on social sustainability and weaken economic performance in several parts of the region. These findings demonstrate that the sustainability consequences of climate change and urbanisation vary considerably across climatic conditions, sectors, and stages of development. The study underscores the importance of climate adaptation, sustainable urban planning, renewable energy transition, institutional strengthening, and climate-resilient infrastructure investment in supporting long-term sustainability and resilience across Sub-Saharan Africa.