Climate-induced Citizen Noncompliance Undermines State Capacity in Africa

Climate change poses a critical threat to state capacity by undermining tax compliance, yet the pathways linking climate shocks to fiscal resilience remain poorly understood. Using geocoded public opinion survey data from 150,471 citizens across 38 African countries and high-resolution remote sensing data, we provide the first empirical evidence that weather extremes increase tax noncompliance by 2.9% to 5.2%, disproportionately affecting economically vulnerable populations. This effect arises from climate-induced declines in economic prospects, declining satisfaction and trust in state institutions, and worsening food and fuel insecurity, which reduce households’ ability and willingness to meet tax obligations. Projections estimate that weather extremes could cause annual tax revenue losses exceeding $3.14 billion across the continent, highlighting the fiscal risks posed by climate change. Our findings also show that climate adaptation measures — such as access to reliable water sources and climate-resilient infrastructure, can significantly mitigate these effects. These results underscore the importance of integrating climate adaptation into state-building efforts to safeguard fiscal resilience in developing countries.