Climate-Induced Shifts in Rainfed Cereal Suitability and Their Implications for Grassland Conversion Risk in Eastern Africa
Domain:
climategeospatialagricultureRecord type:
dataset
Creator:
Dic
Publisher:
fig
Host:
This study assesses projected shifts in rainfed cereal suitability under future climate conditions and examines their implications for potential agricultural expansion and grassland conversion in Eastern Africa. The analysis compares baseline conditions with projections for 2040–2069 under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios.
The study focuses on cereal suitability within the region's grassland areas and evaluates changes in suitability and productive status. Grassland areas are classified according to whether they experience productive loss, productive persistence, productive gain, or remain non-productive under future climate conditions. A grassland pixel is considered productive if either class is highly or moderately suitable. The study then examines whether climate-driven suitability loss is associated with conversion pressure, using accessibility indicators, namely travel time to populated areas and travel time to cereal lands experiencing a decline in suitability, as proxies for that pressure.
Crops analyzed: Overall suitability raster (overall suitability considers the most suitable crop per pixel), maize, sorghum, paddy rice, millet, summer wheat, winter wheat, rye, and barley.
The datasets include
Suitability change: Raster datasets showing projected changes in cereal suitability between the baseline and future climate scenarios.
Productivity change: Raster datasets showing changes in the productivity status of land between baseline and future climate conditions.
Accessibility layers: Accessibility rasters representing travel time to populated areas and to areas experiencing loss in cropland suitability for each of the crops
Resolution
Suitability and productivity-change datasets are provided at 250 m spatial resolution, while accessibility datasets are provided at 1 km resolution. All spatial datasets use the Africa Albers Equal Area Conic coordinate reference system (ESRI:102022).
The datasets are intended to support further research on climate-driven changes in agricultural suitability, agricultural expansion, grassland conversion, and associated spatial patterns in Eastern Africa.
See Read Me and Data dictionary for more details
The study focuses on cereal suitability within the region's grassland areas and evaluates changes in suitability and productive status. Grassland areas are classified according to whether they experience productive loss, productive persistence, productive gain, or remain non-productive under future climate conditions. A grassland pixel is considered productive if either class is highly or moderately suitable. The study then examines whether climate-driven suitability loss is associated with conversion pressure, using accessibility indicators, namely travel time to populated areas and travel time to cereal lands experiencing a decline in suitability, as proxies for that pressure.
Crops analyzed: Overall suitability raster (overall suitability considers the most suitable crop per pixel), maize, sorghum, paddy rice, millet, summer wheat, winter wheat, rye, and barley.
The datasets include
Suitability change: Raster datasets showing projected changes in cereal suitability between the baseline and future climate scenarios.
Productivity change: Raster datasets showing changes in the productivity status of land between baseline and future climate conditions.
Accessibility layers: Accessibility rasters representing travel time to populated areas and to areas experiencing loss in cropland suitability for each of the crops
Resolution
Suitability and productivity-change datasets are provided at 250 m spatial resolution, while accessibility datasets are provided at 1 km resolution. All spatial datasets use the Africa Albers Equal Area Conic coordinate reference system (ESRI:102022).
The datasets are intended to support further research on climate-driven changes in agricultural suitability, agricultural expansion, grassland conversion, and associated spatial patterns in Eastern Africa.
See Read Me and Data dictionary for more details
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