Climate Variability and Livestock Production Output in Nigeria: A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Temperature, Rainfall and Livestock Population Trends

Climate variability increasingly threatens livestock productivity, animal welfare and the spatial stability of food-animal systems in tropical countries. This study examined long-run temperature, rainfall and livestock-output dynamics in Nigeria using secondary data for 1961-2022 and state-level livestock counts from the 2022 National Agricultural Sample Census. The analytical framework combined the Mann-Kendall trend test, Sen slope estimator, quantile regression, Bai-Perron multiplebreak analysis, Markov-switching regression, tropical livestock-unit conversion, spatial concentration indices and informationcriterion diagnostics. Maximum, minimum and midpoint temperatures increased significantly, with minimum temperature rising more rapidly and indicating reduced nocturnal recovery from heat load. Annual rainfall showed strong interannual variability but no uniform national monotonic trend. The livestock production index expanded at an estimated compound annual growth rate of 3.13%. AIC/BIC comparisons showed that AR(1) correction was essential: the linear AR(1) model was most parsimonious, while the segmented AR(1) specification produced the lowest RMSE and best residual normality. Robust HAC, Huber, Theil-Sen and quantile slopes remained tightly clustered. Approximately 85.60% of national tropical livestock units were located in northern Nigeria, demonstrating strong spatial exposure to warming, drought, pasture stress and water insecurity. Climate-resilient breeding, water and feed security, heat abatement and integrated surveillance are recommended.