COASTAL EROSION DYNAMICS AND COMMUNITY RESILIENCE IN BAYELSA, NIGERIA: A COMPREHENSIVE TIME SERIES ANALYSIS USING REMOTE SENSING AND GEOSPATIAL TECHNOLOGIES

ABSTRACT  Coastal erosion poses significant threats to communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure along the Niger Delta coast of Nigeria. This study investigates trends in coastal erosion in Bayelsa State for the past two decades (2000-2020) founded on a comprehensive time series analysis using R language. Using the integration of satellite imagery and historical shoreline data, erosion rates, vulnerable areas, and the driving forces of coastal changes were determined. The results are concerning, with erosion rates reaching as high as 11.1 m/year in the most affected locations, driven by both natural and human-induced processes. The result of the study indicates that 59.43% of coastal change occurring is due to erosion, covering 46.535 km² of coast. Moreover, statistical analysis reveals acceleration of erosion rates since 2010 (p < 0.001), correlating significantly with sea-level rise (r = 0.847), mangrove forest cover loss (r = 0.789), and density of oil infrastructure (r = 0.712). The findings exhibit examples the need for an integrated coastal management strategy to safeguard vulnerable communities and the critical Niger Delta ecosystems.