Compound vulnerabilities exacerbate systemic risks of food security in Somalia

Abstract The impacts of climate change are increasingly compounding around the world. Simultaneous extreme weather events threaten coping mechanisms such as migration, and food security in breadbasket regions. Systemic risk approaches offer a critical lens to guide risk-informed sustainable action both now, and in the future. This Analysis proposes a generic conceptual framework to address the nature of such risks. We combine data on weather-related displacement, food insecurity, and conflict to characterize compound vulnerabilities underlying systemic risks. Using an Systemic Risk Impact Pathways (SRIP) model, we illustrate intersections between systemic risk elements and compound vulnerabilities in Somalia, a country affected by recurring extreme weather, protracted armed conflict, political instability and displacement. We show how these dynamics have create a complex nexus of strains on the population and its ability to guarantee food security. Advancing a risk-informed sustainable development agenda, we recommend taking a systemic risk approach instead of a single hazard approach.