Data from: Predicting mosquito infection from Plasmodium falciparum gametocyte density and estimating the reservoir of infection

Transmission reduction is a key component of global efforts to control and eliminate malaria; yet, it is unclear how the density of transmission stages (gametocytes) influences infection (proportion of mosquitoes infected). Human to mosquito transmission was assessed using 171 direct mosquito feeding assays conducted in Burkina Faso and Kenya. Plasmodium falciparum infects Anopheles gambiae efficiently at low densities (4% mosquitoes at 1/μl blood), although substantially more (>200/μl) are required to increase infection further. In a site in Burkina Faso, children harbour more gametocytes than adults though the non-linear relationship between gametocyte density and mosquito infection means that (per person) they only contribute slightly more to transmission. This method can be used to determine the reservoir of infection in different endemic settings. Interventions reducing gametocyte density need to be highly effective in order to halt human–mosquito transmission, although their use can be optimised by targeting those contributing the most to transmission. Characteristics of membrane feeding assay blood donors and mosquito infectionsModel takes raw QT-NASBA data from Schneider et al. 2007 (doi:10.5061/dryad.589ft) and Ouédraogo et al. 2009 (doi:10.5061/dryad.hv01f) and fits a mathematical model to estimate the gametocyte density (gam.median) and 95% Bayesian Credible Intervals (gam.lower, gam.upper). These are combined with blood donor and mosquito characteristics from the membrane feeding assays. Column “Host” denotes host id, “Experiment” gives country (0=Burkina, 1=Kenya), age (0=<7 or 1=>=7 years old) and “asexual.cat” is the asexual parasite density category as measured by microscopy (0=none,1=low,2=high). The point estimate for prevalence of oocysts is given from the model outputs “prev.median” together with 95% Bayesian Credible Intervals (prev.lower, prev.upper). Full details are given in the manuscript.data_eLife.xlsx