Deaths over time under various vaccination coverage scenarios for Ghana (top: A–C) and Liberia (bottom: D–F).

Thick lines show the point estimate, hashed areas the 95% credibility intervals. Baseline scenario (black) in (A–F) includes past mass vaccination and infant immunization, plus continuing infant immunization at 2011 coverage levels. Alternative scenario (red): (A and D): as baseline, but excluding the mass vaccination campaigns; (B and E): as baseline, but assuming no infant immunization at any time; (C and F): as baseline, but including mass vaccination campaigns targeting children under 5 every 5 years at a coverage of 90% instead of future infant immunization.