Decision-Making Models and Organizational Performance in Devolved Public Governance: Evidence from Turkana County Government, Kenya

Decision-making is widely recognized as a central managerial function influencing organizational efficiency, strategic sustainability, and service delivery outcomes. In devolved governance systems, effective decision-making becomes particularly critical due to increased autonomy, accountability demands, and resource management responsibilities at local government levels. This study examined the influence of decision-making models on organizational performance within Turkana County Government, Kenya. Specifically, the study assessed the relationship between rational, intuitive, bounded rationality, and collaborative decision-making models and key organizational performance indicators, including Return on Investment (ROI), operational efficiency, project success rate, and employee satisfaction. The study further investigated the moderating effects of contextual factors such as organizational culture, time pressure, and data availability. A descriptive correlational research design was adopted. Data were collected from 199 managerial employees through structured questionnaires and analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, multiple regression, and moderated regression analysis. The findings revealed that rational and collaborative decision-making models significantly predicted organizational performance, jointly explaining 53.9% of performance variance. Intuitive decision-making demonstrated moderate influence, particularly under time-constrained operational environments, while bounded rationality exhibited minimal predictive influence. Contextual factors significantly strengthened the effectiveness of decision-making models. The study concludes that integrated decision-making frameworks supported by robust data systems and participatory governance structures significantly enhance organizational performance in devolved public institutions. The findings contribute to public administration, management information systems, and governance literature by providing empirical evidence on decision-making effectiveness in resource-constrained public sector environments.