Determinants of Food Security in Nigeria: An ARDL Approach

Food security remains one of the most critical and persistent challenges facing Nigeria, a country where episodes of economic growth have not consistently translated into improved food access for its population. This study examines the long-run determinants of food security in Nigeria, with particular focus on the roles of agricultural credit, climate change, economic growth, technological innovation, and population growth. Using annual time series data analyzed through an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework, the study finds that agricultural credit, economic growth, and technological innovation each exert a statistically significant and positive influence on food security. Specifically, a one-unit increase in agricultural credit corresponds to an approximate 2.61-unit improvement in food security over the long run. In contrast, climate change, proxied by CO₂ emissions and rapid population growth, exerts significant negative effects, with population growth showing a particularly large adverse impact. The ARDL bounds test confirms cointegration among the variables (F-statistic: 4.6639), indicating the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship. These findings underscore the need for integrated, multi-sectoral policy approaches that simultaneously address financial access, environmental sustainability, technological diffusion, and demographic pressures as essential conditions for achieving durable food security in Nigeria.