Determinants of Rice Import Dependency in Benin: Evidence From A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model

Ensuring sufficient, healthy, and accessible food for the entire population remains a critical challenge for Benin. Despite policy efforts, rice imports have continued to rise over the past decades. This study applies a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to annual data from 1970 to 2023 to identify the main economic drivers of this dependency, focusing on rice yield, GDP per capita, and the exchange rate. Unit root tests indicate that all variables are stationary in first differences, and Johansen tests confirm the absence of cointegration, implying no long-run equilibrium relationship. The results show that rice yield exerts a significant negative effect on rice imports, with higher productivity reducing import dependence. In contrast, GDP per capita and the exchange rate have no statistically significant impact. Granger causality tests corroborate the direct influence of yield on imports. These findings underscore the central role of agricultural productivity in shaping import patterns and provide evidence-based policy insights to promote sustainable domestic production and strengthen food security in Benin.