Differential Effects of Social Learning, Independent Learning, and Dropout in Scaling Conservation Uptake

Community-based initiatives are recognised as key to achieving global conservation targets; however, the social mechanisms underpinning their uptake and persistence remain poorly described. Previous work modelling uptake dynamics pays little attention to dropout and relies on dissimilar case studies, limiting comparative inference around the importance of distinct mechanisms. We contribute a theoretical demonstration of how small changes in rates of social learning, independent learning, and dropout produce highly differential long-term uptake. We show these theoretical dynamics are consistent with the empirical patterns of uptake in a rangeland conservation initiative across five South African communities. In theory and practice, we show small changes in independent learning rates have disproportionate effects on early adoption, while small changes in dropout have large downstream effects on total uptake. We recommend that practitioners explicitly engage with these distinct mechanisms to inform scaling strategy, working with communities to understand how these dynamics can be improved.