Ebola Epidemic Mathematical Model — Democratic Republic of Congo

Ebola Epidemic Mathematical Model — Democratic Republic of Congo Vaccine Effectiveness Against Bundibugyo Strain & Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Vaccination Strategies EpidBot Analysis Report | Updated June 2026 Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary 2. Data Sources & Evidence Base 3. Model Structure: SEIHFR-V 4. Mathematical Equations 5. Scenario Analysis Results 6. Sensitivity Analysis 7. Vaccination Timing Analysis 8. Vaccine Effectiveness Against the Bundibugyo Strain 9. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Vaccination Scenarios 10. Model Limitations & Assumptions 11. Policy Recommendations 12. Technical Appendix References --- Executive Summary This report presents a SEIHFR-V compartmental mathematical model for exploring Ebola epidemic scenarios in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with special attention to the Bundibugyo ebolavirus (BDBV) species — one of four Ebola species known to cause human disease, responsible for outbreaks in Uganda (2007–2008) and the DRC (2012). The model incorporates Ebola-specific transmission pathways (community, hospital, and funeral/burial), clinical outcomes, and vaccination effects. A critical new finding is that the currently licensed vaccine Ervebo (rVSV-ZEBOV) has limited cross-protection (~75%) against BDBV, while homologous BDBV vaccines and pan-filovirus candidates demonstrate 83–100% protection in non-human primate (NHP) studies. Key Findings: The estimated **basic rep