EFFECT OF RAINFALL DYNAMICS ON CROP YIELD IN THE SAHEL PART OF NORTHERN NIGERIA

This paper examined the effect of rainfall dynamics on crop yield in the Sahel part of Northern Nigeria. The objectives of this study are to assess the trends in rainfall patterns in Northern Nigeria's Sahel regions over the past three decades (1994-2024) and examine the trend in yield of the selected crops (Maize, Sorghum, and Millet). Man-Kandal test was used to assess the trend in rainfall patterns in Northern Nigeria’s dryland regions over the past three decades and the selected crops in each of the selected location. Man-Kandal test was also used to examine the trend in yield of the selected crops (Maize, Sorghum, and Millet). Data Collection: Rainfall parameters of the selected crops in each of the selected location. The Coefficient of Seasonal Concentration shows Yobe State (77.3%), Sokoto State (75.5%), Katsina State (75.1%) and Zamfara State (71.4%). Yobe has the most concentrated rainfall regime, making it highly vulnerable to delayed onset, mid-season drought, and early cessation. The rainfall data from 1994–2024 indicate a general increase in rainfall across much of the northwestern Sahel region of Nigeria, particularly in Sokoto, Katsina, and Zamfara States, while Yobe State exhibits a slight declining trend. These findings suggest a partial recovery of rainfall conditions in parts of the Nigerian Sahel but also highlight persistent spatial disparities in climate vulnerability. Consequently, millet and sorghum are likely to remain the most resilient crops in the drier northeastern areas, while increasing rainfall may enhance opportunities for maize and sorghum production in the northwestern states. The rainfall trend analysis indicates that three states experienced increasing rainfall over the 1994–2024 period, while one state experienced a declining trend.