Energy system development pathways for Ethiopia: Work Package 3 Final Report

CURRENTLY UNDER INTERNAL REVIEW - PLEASE DO NOT USE UNTIL V1.0 IS PUBLISHED In this technical report, a deliverable of WP3, we present quantitative analysis conducted by KTH Royal Institute of Technology and Addis Ababa Institute of Technology to investigate plausible electrification pathways for Ethiopia. This report focusses on the quantitative modelling of narrative scenarios and demand projections which were developed by University College London in WP1 and 2 through a series of stakeholder workshops that took place in Addis Ababa in 2018 and 2019. We adopt two different modelling approaches, which are described in detail in Section 3 together with the general assumptions common across the scenarios. We use the Open-Source Energy System Modelling framework (OSeMOSYS) to investigate long-term scenarios focusing on the supply side mix for the power sector. The Open Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET) provides insights into the spatial evolution of on-grid and off-grid technologies, focused on meeting latent demand for residential electricity. The two tools were soft-linked to provide coherent insights across on-grid and off-grid sectors. In Section 4 we present the narrative scenarios, which provide a qualitative description of a broad range of plausible futures for the Ethiopian energy sector. The purpose of the narrative scenarios, as an explorative scenario exercise, is to explore alternatives, challenge conventional thinking, and help policy and decision makers think through near-term actions which could avoid undesirable futures, while achieving desired outcomes robustly and at low cost. To provide a quantitative implementation of the narratives, we convert the qualitative storylines into a range of assumptions, constraints and projections. These are documented in Table 2 and together with other numerical assumptions in Section 6. We present the results in Section 5.