Ep. 207: The End of Secrecy: How OSINT is Redefining Intelligence

Episode summary: In this episode of My Weird Prompts, Herman and Corn dive into the shadowy yet surprisingly public world of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT). They explore how everyday people are using high-resolution satellite imagery from companies like Maxar and Planet, alongside social media clips from Telegram and TikTok, to track global conflicts in real-time. The discussion covers the professionalization of hobbyists, the integration of public data into agencies like the CIA, and the high-stakes game of digital verification. From the battlefields of Sudan and Ukraine to the ethical dilemmas of facial recognition and the "fog of OSINT," this episode reveals how the intelligence landscape has been flipped on its head. Learn why a person with a fast internet connection and a bit of patience can now rival the capabilities of multi-billion dollar spy agencies, and what this means for the future of global privacy and diplomacy.

Show Notes

In the latest installment of the *My Weird Prompts* podcast, hosts Herman and Corn Poppleberry shift their focus from the quirky corners of the internet to the high-stakes world of global security. The episode centers on the meteoric rise of Open Source Intelligence, or OSINT—a field that has fundamentally altered how the world monitors conflicts, verifies government claims, and understands events in real time. What was once the exclusive domain of multi-billion dollar intelligence agencies is now being navigated by hobbyists, data scientists, and digital investigators with little more than a fast internet connection and a keen eye for detail.

### The Democratization of the Skies A primary pillar of the discussion is the radical shift in satellite technology. Herman explains that for decades, high-resolution imagery was a closely guarded state secret. Today, however, commercial companies like Maxar and Planet have "democratized the heavens." Herman highlights Maxar's WorldView Legion constellation, which offers a staggering 30-centimeter resolution. This allows anyone with access to the data to see minute details, such as whether a specific hatch on a tank is open or if a building has sustained specific structural damage.

While Maxar provides the "zoom lens," companies like Planet provide the "time-lapse." By operating a massive fleet of smaller satellites, Planet images the entire Earth's landmass daily at a three-to-five-meter resolution. This frequency allows OSINT analysts to track changes over time—watching a desert base grow or identifying new tracks in the sand—providing a level of persistence that even some classified systems struggle to match.

### From Geoguessr to Global Security The brothers delve into the "who" behind the OSINT movement. While organizations like Bellingcat represent the gold standard of professionalized investigative journalism, a vast ecosystem of individual contributors exists on platforms like X and Telegram. Herman points out that the skills required for OSINT often mirror those found in the popular game *Geoguessr*. Analysts can take a single frame of video from a TikTok post and, by examining the angle of shadows or the specific design of a power line, pinpoint the exact coordinates of a troop movement.

This was vividly demonstrated during the conflict in Sudan. Herman notes how OSINT groups tracked the Rapid Support Forces by cross-referencing shadows in social media videos with architectural features in Khartoum. This synthesis of "ground truth" from social media and "eye in the sky" satellite data creates a comprehensive picture of reality that is difficult for any actor to hide.

### The CIA's Cultural Shift One of the most intriguing segments of the episode explores how traditional intelligence agencies, such as the CIA, are adapting to this new reality. Historically, these agencies operated under the mantra that information was only valuable if it was secret. However, under leaders like Director William Burns, there has been a significant pivot toward prioritizing open-source data.

Herman cites estimates suggesting that as much as 80 percent of modern intelligence reporting may now be derived from or supported by open-source information. The role of the professional analyst is shifting from a gatherer of secrets to an editor of global, crowdsourced data. By using artificial intelligence to synthesize millions of posts and satellite metadata, agencies can identify "anomalies"—such as a sudden spike in social media chatter about a specific bridge—and then deploy their highly classified, specialized sensors to confirm the details.

### The Art of Deception and the Fog of OSINT However, the rise of OSINT is not without its challenges. Corn and Herman discuss the resurgence of military deception, or "maskirovka." As commanders realize they are being watched by thousands of digital eyes, they have returned to old-school tactics like inflatable tanks and wooden decoys. At a three-meter satellite resolution, a balloon can easily be mistaken for a real weapon of war, potentially leading OSINT analysts to inadvertently spread misinformation.

This creates what Herman calls the "fog of OSINT." During breaking news events, the rush to be first can lead to the misidentification of targets—for instance, mistaking a grain silo for a missile launcher. To combat this, the OSINT community relies on rigorous verification standards, requiring the triangulation of location, time, and source before a finding is considered credible.

### The End of Anonymity The episode concludes with a sobering look at the privacy implications of these technologies. The same tools used to track a war criminal can also be used to strip away the anonymity of private citizens. With the integration of powerful facial recognition software and data broker tools, a few seconds of footage from a protest or a public street can be linked to an individual's entire online identity.

As Corn reflects, we are entering an era where being outdoors means being potentially geolocated by "a thousand different eyes." While OSINT serves as a powerful tool for accountability and transparency, it also functions as a pervasive form of decentralized surveillance. The speed of information has accelerated diplomacy, forcing governments to react in minutes rather than days, but it has also removed the "buffer zone" of time that often allowed for cooler heads to prevail.

In this deep dive, Herman and Corn illustrate that OSINT is more than just a hobby for map lovers; it is a new form of digital literacy that is closing the gap between the secret world of spies and the public's right to know.

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