Estimating and Explaining the Prevalence of Tuberculosis for Asylum Seekers Upon Their Arrival in Germany

Abstract Up until recently incidences of tuberculosis (TB) had been declining for many years in Germany. The rise in TB cases coincided with a large increase in the number of people applying for asylum. We combine data from various sources to estimate the at-entry prevalence of TB for asylum seekers from 18 countries of origin and rely on survey data to explain the varying risk of suffering from TB. Our results reveal that asylum seekers from Eastern Africa show a much higher risk of suffering from TB than asylum seekers from Afghanistan, Syria, or Iraq. The survey data suggests that asylum seekers from Africa were by far more underprivileged in their respective countries of origin and experienced a higher risk of contracting TB on their way to Germany. Information about the socio-economic situation and the circumstances of the journey to Germany may help to improve TB surveillance.