Explainable Data-Driven Approach for Smart Crop Yield Prediction in Sub-Saharan Africa: Performance and Interpretability Analysis

The increasing demand for innovative strategies in sustainable food production—driven by rapid global population growth, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)—necessitates urgent attention to agricultural resilience. Recent technological advancements have enhanced crop productivity, post-harvest preservation, and environmentally sustainable farming practices. However, three critical bottlenecks remain: (i) the lack of accurate, maize-specific yield prediction methods tailored to SSA; (ii) limited multimodal modeling approaches capable of capturing complex, nonlinear interactions among heterogeneous data sources; and (iii) a lack of explainability mechanisms, which render high-performing models “black boxes” and hinder stakeholder trust. To address these gaps, this study presents an explainable machine learning framework for smart maize yield prediction. We integrate multimodal SSA-specific soil, crop, and weather data to capture the multi-dimensional drivers of maize productivity. Six diverse algorithms—including extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light gradient boosting machine (LGBM), categorical boosting (CatBoost), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and an artificial neural network (ANN) combined with a k-nearest neighbors (kNN)—were benchmarked to evaluate predictive performance. To ensure robustness against spatial heterogeneity, we employed a Leave-One-Plot-Out (LOPO) cross-validation strategy. Empirical results on unseen test data identify CatBoost as the best-performing model, achieving a coefficient of determination of (R2 =~76%), demonstrating its ability to capture complex, nonlinear relationships in agricultural data. To enhance transparency and stakeholder trust, we integrated Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME), providing plot-level insights into the physiological and environmental drivers of maize yield. Together, these contributions establish a scalable and interpretable modeling framework capable of supporting data-driven agricultural decision-making in SSA.