Family of origin and fertility preferences in Nigeria: Does education matter?

Abstract This study examined whether sibship size is associated with women’s ideal number of children in Nigeria and whether educational attainment moderates that relationship. Using data from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS), the analysis was based on 40,670 women aged 15–49 years. Survey weighted Negative Binomial regression models were estimated to assess the relationship between sibship size and ideal number of children while controlling for key sociodemographic characteristics, and whether education moderates that relationship. The findings show that women who grew up in larger families tend to express a preference for larger ideal number of children. Education, however, is associated with lower fertility preferences overall, with more educated women preferring a smaller ideal number of children. The interaction results further indicate that the positive association between sibship size and ideal number of children is stronger among women with secondary and higher education than among women with no education. The study highlights the continuing importance of family background in understanding fertility preferences in Nigeria. These findings have implications for demographic research on fertility preference formation in contexts where pronatalist norms remain strong.