Farmers–Herders Conflict and Rice Yield Loss: Quantitative Evidence from North-Eastern Jigawa State, Nigeria

Farmers–herders (FH) conflict has emerged as a severe threat to rice production in northern Nigeria, yet quantitative micro-level evidence from north-eastern Jigawa State remains scarce. This study assessed the quantitative effects of FH conflict on key rice production indicators among 240 smallholder rice farmers selected through multistage sampling across twelve communities in Guri and Kirikasamma Local Government Areas. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, percentage change analysis, paired samples t-test, and Likert-scale mean scoring. Results revealed statistically significant declines in all production indicators: total rice yield fell by 39.33% (from 8,506.92 kg to 5,160.89 kg; t(239) = 10.20, p < 0.001), yield per hectare declined by 26.02% (from 4,422.93 kg/ha to 3,271.86 kg/ha; t(239) = 28.81, p < 0.001), farm income declined by 51.38% (from ₦3,938,833 to ₦1,915,142), and planted area fell by 30.20% (from 2.12 ha to 1.48 ha). The mean reduction in total yield was 3,346.03 kg (95% CI: 2,699.71–3,992.35 kg), while yield per hectare declined by 1,151.07 kg/ha (95% CI: 1,072.36–1,229.77 kg/ha). Farmers abandoned 0.65 ha of farmland and lost 17 working days per season on average. Seventy percent reduced their planted area, 58.8% experienced rice quality decline, and over 80% incurred additional costs for crop replacement, evacuation, and security. Income loss and yield decline were rated as the most devastating impacts. The findings corroborate resource scarcity, environmental security, and economic theories of conflict. The study concludes that FH conflict operates as a systemic, multi-dimensional shock to the rice economy, significantly undermining farm productivity and rural livelihoods in north-eastern Jigawa State.