Fire-Driven Land Cover Change and Zoonotic Disease Risk in African Landscapes

Land use and land cover (LULC) change – especially habitat disruption – has long been linked to zoonotic disease emergence, yet direct empirical evidence remains limited. Using new spatially disaggregated data, this study offers the clearest evidence to date that fire-linked vegetation loss significantly increases zoonotic risk in forest landscapes, but not in agricultural or other-use areas. Monthly vegetation anomalies, captured via NDVI deviations, are tracked across landscape types. A quasi-experimental mediation design estimates the indirect effect of fire on outbreaks through vegetation loss. Results show that in forests, fire-driven vegetation decline is associated with increased outbreak rates, while no significant effects appear in agricultural or other zones. Fires – including slash-and-burn practices and uncontrolled natural fires – hence play a key role in shaping zoonotic risk. The results underscore the need for integrated fire management and land-use strategies to reduce spillover potential and align public health with climate and conservation goals.