Forecasting Future Output Trends of Selected Food Grains in    Nigeria Using an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

The study analysed the impacts of price fluctuation on the production of selected food grains in Nigeria, with a focus on forecasting future output trends of rice, maize and wheat using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The study covered the period 1981 to 2023, while projections extended from 2024 to 2054. Secondary data were sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Food and Agriculture Organization Statistical Database (FAOSTAT). These sources provided reliable long-term time series data on production and price-related variables for the selected food grains in Nigeria. The results from the ARIMA-based forecasts revealed an overall increase in the production of all three food grains between 2024 and 2054. Rice production is projected to rise from 9,098,425.69 tonnes to 14,637,910.23 tonnes, an increase of 5,539,484.54 tonnes (60.88%). Maize production is projected to increase from 11,686,665.38 tonnes to 16,957,635.60 tonnes, representing 5,270,970.22 tonnes (45.10%). Wheat production is projected to increase from 50,184.67 tonnes to 70,382.78 tonnes, representing 20,198.11 tonnes (40.25%). Thus, rice records the highest projected percentage increase, followed by maize and wheat. The study concluded that while rice and maize production are expected to experience stronger and more sustained growth over the forecast period, wheat production will remain structurally weak and insufficient to meet national demand. Though general food grain output is projected to rise, the growth rate is inadequate to ensure self-sufficiency in all selected cereals without targeted interventions. The study therefore recommends that government planning agencies and agricultural stakeholders utilise these forecast results to strengthen long-term food security strategies, stabilise agricultural prices and enhance productivity in order to coincide domestic production with Nigeria’s growing population and consumption needs.