Future Deployment of Cellulose Based Biofuels: Effect on Worldwide Trade

Future generation biofuels are expected to become commercial in the next 10 to 20 years, and an increasing demand will arise for ligno­cellulosic biomass. With increasing demand, international trade will become more important. The paper shows the results of an exploratory study performed within the framework of IEA Bioenergy Task 40, focusing on trade issues arising from the deployment of ligno­cellulose based biofuels. There are many uncertainties, not in the least in the expectations of the technology itself and its link with other emerging technologies as bio­refineries. The possibility to rely on trade to reach ambitious policy targets is a decisive factor, certainly for regions with limited biomass potential in relation to demand, like West Europe and East Asia. For regions with ample biomass supply possibilities, like Africa or South America, the global market may create economic opportunities. Nevertheless there are issues and uncertainties related to infrastructure and the choice of energy carrier that will be shipped: raw biomass, intermediates or end products (biofuels). This will depend on various aspects, the most important one being the location where conversion units will be built. In all likelihood, the first trading will be raw biomass or intermediate biofuels from countries that have biomass and developed trade routes in similar products to advanced biofuel plants in developed countries. Further work is still needed to get a better view on the potential role of cellulose based 2nd generation biofuels, how these can be supported efficiently with optimal impact in terms of energy, ecology and economy. Proceedings of the 18th European Biomass Conference and Exhibition, 3-7 May 2010, Lyon, France, pp. 2109-2117