"Fuzzy Multi-Agent Simulation of COVID-19 Pandemic Spreading"

International audience In this paper, we present a new approach for Covid-19 Pandemic spreadingsimulation based on fuzzy multi agents. The agent parameters consider distributionof the population according to age, and the index of socio-economic fragility. Medicalknowledge affirms that the COVID-19 main risk factors are age and obesity. The worstmedical situation is caused by the combination of these two risk factors which in almost99% of cases finish in ICU. The appearance of virus variants is another aspect parameterby our simulation through a simplified modeling of the contagiousness. Using real datafrom people from West Indies (Guadeloupe, F.W.I.), we modeled the infection rate of therisk population, if neither vaccination nor barrier gestures are respected. The resultsshow that hospital capacities are exceeded, and the number of deaths exceeds 2% of theinfected population, which is close to the reality.