Geospatial distribution and machine learning algorithms for assessing water quality in surface water bodies of Morocco

Abstract Surface waterbodies being primary source of water for human consumption are being investigated for its quality globally. This study evaluated water quality in three rivers (River Nfifikh, Hassar and El Maleh) of Mohammedia prefecture, Morocco in terms of heavy metals occurrence during two seasons of winter and spring. The heavy metals analyzed were cadmium, iron, copper, zinc, and lead. Heavy metal pollution index was derived to quantify water quality and pollution. Hazard quotient and carcinogenic risk were calculated to determine possible health risk. Modelling and prediction were performed using random forest, support vector machine and artificial neural network. The heavy metal concentration was lower in the winter season than in the spring season. Heavy metal pollution index (H.P.I.) was in the range of 1.5–2 during the winter season and 2–3 during the spring season. In the Nfifikh river, Cd 2+ and Fe were the main polluting heavy metal. H.Q. was < 1 in all three rivers, which signified no adverse health effect from exposure to heavy metals. However, carcinogenic risk assessment revealed that 1 in every 100 people was susceptible to cancer during the life span of 70 years. Based on the control point reference, it was found that Mohammedia prefecture as river water was already contaminated before it entered the prefecture boundary. This was again validated with the water lagoon Douar El Marja which is located near the industrial zones of Mohammedia prefecture. Future studies are required to investigate pollution of rivers prior to their entry in Mohammedia prefecture to identify potential source and adopt mitigation measures accordingly.