abdellahikrzn/internet-voter-turnout

Analysis of internet access vs voter turnout in African countries # Does Internet Access Increase Voter Turnout? Evidence from 15 African countries ## Research Question Does higher internet access correlate with higher voter turnout in African countries? ## Data - **15 African countries** (Botswana, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Tunisia, Uganda, Zimbabwe) - **Internet access**: % of population using internet (year closest to election) - **Voter turnout**: % of registered voters who voted (most recent national election) - **GDP per capita**: 2023 (control variable, not used in final model) ## Method - Linear regression (internet access → voter turnout) - Data cleaning: filled missing internet values with nearest available year - Visualization: scatter plots, regression line with 95% CI, bar charts ## Key Result - **R² = 0.08** → Internet access explains only **8% of the variance** in voter turnout - **P‑value = 0.31** (not statistically significant at p < 0.05) - **Slope = −0.18** → weak negative relationship (more internet, slightly lower turnout, but not meaningful) ## Outliers: Morocco & Rwanda | Country | Internet Access (%) | Voter Turnout (%) | Expected Turnout (from model) | Deviation | |---------|--------------------|-------------------|-------------------------------|-----------| | **Morocco** | 88.1% | 37.1% | ~55% | **−18%** (much lower than predicted) | | **Rwanda** | 34.2% | 98.0% | ~45% | **+53%** (much higher than predicted) | Both countries fall far from the regression line in opposite directions. ## Why Are They Outliers? (Hypotheses) ### Morocco (high internet, very low turnout) - Parliamentary elections seen as less important than presidential ones - Political distrust / apathy ("boycott culture") - Internet used for information, not mobilization ### Rwanda (moderate internet, extremely high turnout) - **Compulsory voting** (enforced by local authorities) - Strong civic education campaigns - Post‑genocide political culture of partic …