Abdullahabdazeez/borno-conflict-displacement

Multi-indicator geospatial analysis of conflict exposure, settlement contraction and population change in Borno State, Nigeria (2015–2023). # Conflict-Induced Displacement and Settlement Change in Borno State, Nigeria (2015–2023) ## Overview This project examines settlement change across Borno State between 2015 and 2023. I used several geospatial datasets together because no single indicator can reliably show whether a settlement has contracted, remained active or been abandoned. The analysis screened **2,455 settlements across all 27 LGAs in Borno State**. I combined built-up change, night-time lights, conflict exposure and modelled population change, then examined **13 settlements in detail**. The final interpretation identified **3 priority contraction cases**, **7 priority change-signal cases**, and **3 retained cases where population evidence was insufficient**. None of the 13 cases is presented as a confirmed abandoned settlement. --- ## Research Question **Where do multiple geospatial indicators point to meaningful settlement contraction or change across conflict-affected Borno State?** --- ## Study Area The study covers **Borno State, north-eastern Nigeria**, including all **27 Local Government Areas**. The settlement screening included **2,455 populated places**. The 13 detailed validation cases are located in: - Abadam - Bama - Gwoza - Kala Balge - Konduga - Ngala --- ## Why This Matters Conflict can affect settlements in different ways. People may leave, return or relocate. Buildings may be damaged or removed. Night-time activity may reduce. Some settlements may also recover while others continue to decline. Because these processes do not always move together, I avoided using a single dataset as proof of settlement abandonment. Instead, I compared different indicators and used the level of agreement between them to guide the final interpretation. --- ## Data Sources | Dataset | Main Use | |---|---| | GeoNames populated places | Settlement locations and statewide screening | | ACLED | Conflict exposure around settlements | | VIIRS night-time lights | Change in detected …