abigailnzambi/OAF-prepayment-trial-analysis

Analysis of a two-year prepayment fee trial across One Acre Fund districts in Kenya, with a recommendation on scaling the 10% prepayment model. Built in R (tidyverse, ggplot2, kableExtra). # OAF Prepayment Trial Analysis This project analyses a two-year Innovation Lab trial run by One Acre Fund across three Kenya districts — Chwele, Bungoma, and Lugari, to evaluate whether changing the group loan prepayment fee from a flat 500 KES to 10% of each farmer's total transaction size improves repayment outcomes. ## Background One Acre Fund's group loan model allows farmers to purchase inputs on a group liability structure. To qualify, enrolled farmers must pay a prepayment fee by end of December each year. The trial tested whether a proportional fee (10% of loan size) would improve repayment discipline compared to the standard flat fee, and at what cost to enrollment. ## What this analysis covers - Enrollment dropout rates: trial vs control districts across 2019 and 2020 - Repayment and default rates among qualified farmers - Financial cost of defaults as a share of revenue - District-level breakdown for all 22 Kenya districts - Year-over-year performance for the three trial districts ## Tools R, tidyverse, ggplot2, kableExtra, scales