Adedoyin214/malaria-time-series-analysis

Box-Jenkins ARIMA Time Series Analysis of Malaria Deaths — General Hospital Toro, Bauchi State, Nigeria (2000–2024) # Time Series Analysis of Malaria Deaths ### General Hospital Toro, Bauchi State, Nigeria (2000–2024) --- ## Overview This repository contains a comprehensive **Box-Jenkins ARIMA** time series analysis of annual malaria deaths recorded at **General Hospital Toro, Bauchi State, Nigeria** from 2000 to 2024. All statistical output is presented in **EViews format**, making it directly comparable to results generated by the EViews econometric software. --- ## Research Summary | Item | Detail | |------|--------| | **Variable** | Annual Malaria Deaths | | **Source** | General Hospital Toro, Bauchi State | | **Sample** | 2000–2024 (25 observations) | | **Method** | Box-Jenkins ARIMA (ADF & PP Unit Root Tests) | | **Best Model** | ARIMA(0,1,2) — Minimum AIC & BIC | | **Forecast Horizon** | 2025–2029 (5 years) | | **Significance Level** | 5% (α = 0.05) | --- ## Key Findings - **Stationarity**: Series is I(1) — confirmed by both ADF and Phillips-Perron tests across all specifications - **Model Selected**: ARIMA(0,1,2) with AIC = 176.2495 and BIC = 179.7836 - **Diagnostics**: All Ljung-Box Q-statistics (lags 1–12) indicate no residual autocorrelation — model is well-specified - **Forecast**: Projected deaths of approximately 52–54 per year from 2025–2029 --- ## Repository Structure ``` malaria-time-series-analysis/ │ ├── data/ │ └── Time_series_research_dataset.xlsx # Raw data from General Hospital Toro │ ├── output/ │ └── Malaria_ARIMA_EViews_Analysis.docx # Full EViews-style report (Word) │ └── Malaria_ARIMA_EViews_Analysis.xlsx # Full EViews-style report (Excel) │ ├── code/ │ └── arima_analysis.py # Python analysis script │ └── README.md ``` --- ## Analysis Contents (in Report) 1. **Data & Descriptive Statistics** — Mean, Std. Dev., Skewness, Kurtosis, Jarque-Bera 2. **Unit Root Tests** — ADF & PP tests at level and 1st difference (all 3 specifications each) 3. **Correlogram** — ACF & PACF at level and 1st difference 4. **Model S …